China's passenger-car association forecasts about 1.07 million NEV retail sales in October, with penetration near 66.9 percent

The China Passenger Car Association forecast on 23 October 2026 that October retail of narrow passenger cars would be about 1.60 million, and that new-energy retail would be about 1.07 million, with a retail penetration rate of about 66.9 percent. The forecast page, timestamped 18:36:52 that day, says the 1.60 million is down 1.1 percent from September and down 28.9 percent from a year earlier. It says new-energy volume is supported by orders already taken, that penetration around 66.9 percent is a bit below September's quarter-end high, and that the pullback fits a normal seasonal pattern. It does not print a year-on-year percentage for the October new-energy forecast itself.

September, in the same note, was already a soft "golden September." Retail was 1.618 million, down 28.0 percent from a year earlier and up 5.0 percent from August. Conventional-fuel retail was 534,000, with a year-on-year drop the association describes as more than 40 percent, which it ties to oil prices staying high. New-energy retail was 1.084 million, down 16.7 percent from a year earlier, at a penetration rate of 67.0 percent, which the association says was another record. The October forecast is a smaller market than that September, on the association's own comparison, and a slightly lower new-energy share.

The association's case for a weak October is that the usual "silver October" lift has faded. It says showroom traffic rose modestly over the National Day holiday and fell back quickly afterward, and that weak expectations for household income and a wait-and-see mood from dealer competition have not fundamentally improved. A survey of automakers in early October, it says, found most leading manufacturers cautious about the fourth-quarter pace. Most, it says, had finished less than 60 percent of their annual targets in the first three quarters, so there is still room for a late push, but pressure to avoid excessive competition and pressure on dealer profits limited the room to trade price for volume. It describes October inventory plans as cautious.

Its week-by-week sketch, still inside that forecast, puts average daily retail at 32,000 in the holiday week, when the emphasis was collecting orders rather than handing over cars. It puts the second week near 58,000 a day as those orders were delivered, the third week near 47,000 as some limited-time discounts ended, the fourth week near 49,000 as models launched in the third quarter kept arriving, and the fifth week near 79,000 on a month-end push. Added up, it says, that path is about 1.60 million for the month. Those daily rates are the association's estimate of how the month would unfold, published on 23 October, while the month was still open.

The same page cites the National Bureau of Statistics on retail value, which is money spent, not a vehicle count. It says retail sales of consumer goods rose 1.1 percent in January through September, while the auto category fell 14.9 percent. For September alone it says consumer-goods retail rose 1.1 percent and the auto category fell 21.2 percent, a drop it says was still widening. It then returns to units: fuel-car demand is still weighed down by oil prices, with only a small seasonal help from the holiday and promotions, while new-energy demand is relatively stable. It says several new models are still due before year-end, but the path from debut and pre-sale to delivery has lengthened, and that new-energy growth has entered a plateau even if penetration stays high.

CnEVPost, in a story published the same day, says the October new-energy forecast is down 16.5 percent from a year earlier and about 1.3 percent from September, and that penetration would be 0.1 percentage point under September's 67.0 percent. Its chart, which it sources to the association, lists October 2025 passenger new-energy retail at 1,282,000 and the October 2026 estimate at 1,070,000, and it marks the October 2026 bar as an estimate. The association's own forecast page uses "about 1.07 million" and "about 66.9 percent." It does not print 16.5 percent, and it does not print the October 2025 count of 1,282,000. The 1.3 percent month-to-month reading is also CnEVPost's. September's 1.084 million and October's about 1.07 million are the association's figures. They are close, which is why a small decline is a fair description, but the percentage is the outlet's.

Analysis

This is a forecast dated 23 October for a month that had not finished. It is not the association's final October retail report. The 66.9 percent is a projected share of a projected 1.60 million, not a registration result. The 16.5 percent is CnEVPost's comparison, using a year-earlier October figure that the forecast page itself does not print. The bureau's auto retail figures on the same page are declines in sales value. A 21.2 percent drop in September's auto retail value is not the same series as the 28.0 percent drop in September's passenger-car unit retail, and neither is an export count.

The export story on this desk, about shipments to Brazil, is a different China Passenger Car Association series. A retail forecast for one domestic month does not confirm or revise that trade figure.

More from the Industry/Business desk: new-energy exports to Brazil, BYD's Camaçari permit request, and the revised U.S. third-quarter estimates.